Since the Preakness will be contested with 5 fewer runners than we had in the Derby I highly doubt that we will have a Superfecta Picks anywhere close to $1 one that returned $24,063.00 2 Saturday's ago. Generally in a wager like this I like to key a horse on top, and then go deep in the other 3 slots. But since I like 2 horses that both happen to be prices, I will key them both.
Shackleford was my Derby selection, and did not embarrass me by finishing 4th at 23-1 Vegas Odds. There is a certain part of me that wants to find criticism in his performance. He did get away with a 48:3 half mile, which happens to be the slowest Derby half since 1947. The other part of me sees a horse that ran against a significant bias. Out of the last 6 dirt races at Churchill that day 5 were won by dead closers, while the other won by a presser. Shortening up a 1/16th should in my estimation also be beneficial. He has rated and had success before, so I will be gambling that he can do it again.
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Sway Away would be the other horse that I would key. He ran a terrific 4th in the Arkansas Derby, a race that is turning out to be easily the best of the Derby preps. To me, he made a premature middle move into a ridiculously hot pace while wearing blinkers for the first time. I love the rider switch to the much more patient Garrett Gomez as well.
Your Derby winner Animal Kingdom is obviously someone that you have to at the least use underneath. The reason I am not putting him on top is the quick turnaround. The 6 weeks that he had between his last prep and the Derby was an advantage that he had over the majority of that field.
Most were exiting preps that were run 3-4 weeks prior to the derby. You also have to be a pretty special racehorse to win the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown, and to be honest I am just not convinced that he is.
It would be silly to leave Mucho Macho Man off of your Super ticket considering he has finished in the money 8 of 9. Have to use a horse whom seemingly gives it his all each and every time he competes. Dialed In with his off the pace style also makes a ton of sense to me in the 2nd-4th slots, in a race where you know that the pace is going to be rapid courtesy of runners such as Flashpoint. 2011 Preakness Picks listed below.
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